Resource Library

Predicting short time-to-crime guns

Abstract

Gun-related crime continues to be an urgent public health and safety problem in cities across the US. A key question is: how are firearms diverted from the legal retail market into the hands of gun offenders? With close to 8 million legal firearm transaction records in California (2010–2020) linked to over 380,000 records of recovered crime guns (2010–2021), we employ supervised machine learning to predict which firearms are used in crimes shortly after purchase.

Machine learning analysis of handgun transactions to predict firearm suicide risk

Abstract

Importance  Evidence suggests that limiting access to firearms among individuals at high risk of suicide can be an effective means of suicide prevention, yet accurately identifying those at risk to intervene remains a key challenge. Firearm purchasing records may offer a large-scale and objective data source for the development of tools to predict firearm suicide risk.

A drop in firearm homicide deaths

In this issue: According to newly released provisional 2022 mortality data from CDC WONDER, the rate of firearm mortality fell by 1.5% from 2021 to 2022. A 6.5% drop in firearm homicide deaths is driving that decrease, despite a 2.5% jump in firearm suicides. The overall 1.5% decrease may appear modest, but it represents tragedies prevented and lives saved.

Basic needs come first

“As a psychiatrist, I’ve long known that helping people with their mental health often requires meeting their basic needs. During the pandemic, we started to do that..." Continue reading