Political Violence

• Support for political violence decreased for 19.9% of respondents, increased for 14.2%, and remained unchanged for 65.9%.
• "Things improved for me financially" was associated with decreased support for political violence.
• "I gave up on politics" was associated with increased support for political violence.
• Those who reported that violence was usually or always justified for at least 1 political objective in 2022 had no events associated with change in support in 2023.
• Among those who

While some modest differences emerged between military and non-military respondents, overall, findings indicated that military service and combat experience did not act as risk factors for support for and willingness to engage in political violence, or approval of extremist organizations and movements.

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  More than 50% MAGA Republicans considered violence usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 21 specified political objectives (MAGA Republicans, 55.9%; non-MAGA non-Republicans, 25.5%).

• In 2023, strong agreement with expressions of 7 forms of hatred, fear, and enmity toward others was common in the United States: homonegativity, 26.4%; racism, 19.1%; transphobia, 17.1%; xenophobia, 10.3%; hostile sexism, 8.1%; Islamophobia, 5.5%; antisemitism, 3.2%.
• For each of them, strong agreement was significantly associated with the view that political violence is justified.

• In mid-2025, a substantial minority of American adults endorse authoritarian views.

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  Strong or very strong agreement that civil war was coming and that it was needed were both uncommon and did not increase from 2023 to 2024 (6.5% and 3.6%, respectively, in 2024; 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively, in 2023). This good news was counter to our expectation; 2024 was an election year and a time of increased political polarization.

In 2022, a nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, but those prevalences decreased in 2023. This study examines changes in those prevalences from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA.

A small segment of the U.S. population considers violence, including lethal violence, to be usually or always justified to advance political objectives. This is according to newly published research from the UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program (VPRP).

BACKGROUND

During this webinar, researchers from the University of California, Davis and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussed new research that examines the public’s attitudes toward political violence, and how gun owners in particular view this topic. Panelists also discussed the implications of this new research on the upcoming election.