Political Violence

Public Opinion on Civil War in the USA as of Mid-2024

AbstractBackground

In 2023, Wave 2 of an annual, nationally representative longitudinal survey found a concerning level of agreement that civil war was likely in the USA and, among those who agreed, widespread belief that civil war was needed. This study updates those findings to 2024 and explores respondents’ predicted involvement in such a conflict.

PREPRINT: The MAGA Movement and Political Violence in 2024

AbstractBackground: 

The possibility of widespread political violence poses a serious concern for the United States. A nationally representative survey found in 2022 that “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Republicans, as defined, were more supportive than others of political violence. This study updates and expands those findings; the principal comparison is between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. 

Trends in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA, 2022–2024

AbstractBackground

In 2022, a nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, but those prevalences decreased in 2023. This study examines changes in those prevalences from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA.

Social network size and endorsement of political violence in the US

Background: In recent years, the United States (US) has witnessed a rise in political violence. Prior research has found that an individual's social network is associated with their likelihood of engaging in various forms of violence, but research on social networks and political violence in the US context is limited.

Webinar: Political Violence and the 2024 Elections

 

 

During this webinar, researchers from the University of California, Davis and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussed new research that examines the public’s attitudes toward political violence, and how gun owners in particular view this topic. Panelists also discussed the implications of this new research on the upcoming election.

Expectations of and perceived need for civil war in the USA: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey

Background

Surveys have found concerningly high levels of agreement that the United States will experience civil war soon. This study assesses variation in expectation of and perceived need for civil war with respondent sociopolitical characteristics, beliefs, firearm ownership, and willingness to engage in political violence.