Research

The primary purpose of this project was to develop and test a new large-scale approach to threat assessment that relies on objective data regarding firearm purchases. Specifically, to analyze firearm transaction records in California to better understand the firearm purchasing patterns of mass shooters and perpetrators of firearm-related crimes and to build risk prediction models to help identify individuals who might be at extreme risk for committing such crimes in the future.

• While nearly two-thirds (63.2%; n=2188) of survey respondents favored police-initiated petitions, write-in responses illuminated nuanced and context-dependent tradeoffs situated within racialized legal, political, and economic systems. 
• These tradeoffs included: 
  1. systems knowledge versus relational and contextual knowledge;
  2. mainstream credibility versus direct lines of communication;
  3. procedural burden versus personal capacity and responsibility;
  4. fear of repercussions versus wariness of law enforcement;

• Most respondents (67.4%) reported having never heard of extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs).

“Extreme risk protection orders are often talked about as a way to prevent suicide, but our findings show they may do more than that. People subject to these orders in California were less likely to be arrested for violence or other crimes while the orders were in effect and even after they ended, suggesting ERPOs have a meaningful role to play in preventing interpersonal violence.”

-Veronica Pear, assistant professor and lead author

Visual abstracts are available for the following papers:

Aubel AJ, Bruns A, Zhang X, Buggs S, Kravitz-Wirtz N. Neighborhood collective efficacy and environmental exposure to firearm homicide among a national sample of adolescents. Injury Epidemiology. 2023 Jun 9;10(1):24.

The Background Check and Licensing Policies for Firearm Purchase Database includes state-level data from 1980-2019 on factors relevant to the design, implementation, and enforcement of background checks and licensing policies for firearm transfers. This includes policy details (e.g. fingerprinting required, license duration), information about related policies (e.g. state prohibiting criteria), and criminal history database details. Data are collated from multiple public sources.

The 2018 California Safety and Wellbeing Survey (CSaWS) is publicly available to facilitate additional scientific research and informed decision-making about strategies for preventing violence and improving safety and health equity outcomes. The dataset and supplemental materials are located in the University of Michigan's Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention (IFIP) Data Repository on openICPSR. Access the dataset here.

Clinicians have a unique opportunity to contribute to the prevention of firearm-related injury and death. The 3As Framework provides clinicians with the tools to have respectful, effective conversations about firearms with their patients and clients, their family members and caregivers.

These conversations can feel difficult. But with training and a risk-based approach, clinicians can guide patients and their families to better understand the risks of having firearms in the home.”

• Support for political violence decreased for 19.9% of respondents, increased for 14.2%, and remained unchanged for 65.9%.
• "Things improved for me financially" was associated with decreased support for political violence.
• "I gave up on politics" was associated with increased support for political violence.
• Those who reported that violence was usually or always justified for at least 1 political objective in 2022 had no events associated with change in support in 2023.
• Among those who

While some modest differences emerged between military and non-military respondents, overall, findings indicated that military service and combat experience did not act as risk factors for support for and willingness to engage in political violence, or approval of extremist organizations and movements.