Research

Fear, Loathing, and Support for Political Violence in the United States

 About the PaperIN ONE SENTENCE

Homonegativity, racism, transphobia, xenophobia, hostile sexism, Islamophobia, and antisemitism are all disturbingly common in the United States, and each of them is strongly linked to support for and willingness to commit political violence.

PREPRINT: Support for Authoritarianism and Use of Force by and against the Federal Government in the United States in Mid-2025

About the PaperIN TWO SENTENCES

In mid-2025, a substantial minority of Americans endorse authoritarian views; smaller minorities agree that the current federal government should rely on the military to enforce its policies and would be willing to engage in violence on behalf of the government. Large majorities of Americans reject authoritarianism and political violence.

Public Opinion on Civil War in the USA as of Mid-2024

 AbstractBackground

In 2023, Wave 2 of an annual, nationally representative longitudinal survey found a concerning level of agreement that civil war was likely in the USA and, among those who agreed, widespread belief that civil war was needed. This study updates those findings to 2024 and explores respondents’ predicted involvement in such a conflict.

PREPRINT: The MAGA Movement and Political Violence in 2024

AbstractBackground: 

The possibility of widespread political violence poses a serious concern for the United States. A nationally representative survey found in 2022 that “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Republicans, as defined, were more supportive than others of political violence. This study updates and expands those findings; the principal comparison is between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. 

Effects of implementing permissive campus carry laws

AbstractBackground

Following the Supreme Court’s decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, which ruled a New York concealed-carry permitting requirement unconstitutional, laws restricting the public carrying of firearms in “sensitive places,” like college campuses, have received increasing attention. However, there is little evidence for whether permissive campus carry policies increase firearm violence or, via deterrence, reduce general crime on campus.

Identifying high-risk firearms dealers

AbstractResearch Summary

Using firearm transaction and crime gun recovery records from California (2010–2021), we employ machine learning to identify dealers who sold largest number and highest fraction of guns recovered in crimes within 1 year of sale. This short “time-to-crime” (TTC) is a well-established indicator of potential illegal activity by dealers or traffickers.

Trends in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA, 2022–2024

AbstractBackground

In 2022, a nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, but those prevalences decreased in 2023. This study examines changes in those prevalences from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA.

The origins of California’s Gun Violence Restraining Order law

AbstractBackground

Firearm violence is a major public health problem in the United States, yet most states lack a mechanism to temporarily remove firearms from individuals who are at high and imminent risk of harming themselves or others and are not otherwise prohibited. Extreme risk protection order (ERPO) laws are intended to close this gap. The current study examines the passage of California’s gun violence restraining order (GVRO) bill using Kingdon’s multiple streams framework.