Research

These findings are clear. Entrapment in a spiral of escalating political violence is not inevitable in the United States. Those who promote political violence should recognize that they do not have the public’s support and that promoting violence may exact a political cost.”

- Garen Wintemute, Professor of Emergency Medicine and Director of the UC Davis Centers for Violence Prevention

Since 2022, researchers at the Centers for Violence Prevention at UC Davis have surveyed Americans on how they feel about political violence, including whether it is ever justified and, if so, whether they would personally get involved in it. This fact sheet provides updated key findings of the research and citations to peer-reviewed publications.

Click here for the full PDF. 

• While nearly two-thirds (63.2%; n=2188) of survey respondents favored police-initiated petitions, write-in responses illuminated nuanced and context-dependent tradeoffs situated within racialized legal, political, and economic systems. 
• These tradeoffs included: 
  1. systems knowledge versus relational and contextual knowledge;
  2. mainstream credibility versus direct lines of communication;
  3. procedural burden versus personal capacity and responsibility;
  4. fear of repercussions versus wariness of law enforcement;

These findings are clear. Entrapment in a spiral of escalating political violence is not inevitable in the United States. Those who promote political violence should recognize that they do not have the public’s support and that promoting violence may exact a political cost.

-Garen Wintemute, director of CVP, professor, and lead author

Despite its recent scandals, the NRA may remain capable of mobilizing large numbers of people who are armed and willing to use violence to advance political objectives. At the same time, NRA approvers who reject political violence might be uniquely credible messengers in efforts to create a population-wide culture of non-acceptance for political violence.

-Garen Wintemute, director of CVP, professor, and lead author

The primary purpose of this project was to develop and test a new large-scale approach to threat assessment that relies on objective data regarding firearm purchases. Specifically, to analyze firearm transaction records in California to better understand the firearm purchasing patterns of mass shooters and perpetrators of firearm-related crimes and to build risk prediction models to help identify individuals who might be at extreme risk for committing such crimes in the future.

“Extreme risk protection orders are often talked about as a way to prevent suicide, but our findings show they may do more than that. People subject to these orders in California were less likely to be arrested for violence or other crimes while the orders were in effect and even after they ended, suggesting ERPOs have a meaningful role to play in preventing interpersonal violence.”

-Veronica Pear, assistant professor and lead author

• Using social media, text-based messaging, and right-biased news were each positively associated with support for political violence. 
• Consuming news via television and middle/balanced media was inversely related to participants’ belief they would use a firearm to advance a political objective. 
• Neither television nor print media modified the association between social media and political violence support. 

Political violence is rising in the US and considered a public health concern.

Database of state laws (2000-2024) regulating the carrying of firearms at parades, demonstrations, rallies, and similar events.
Note that to determine whether firearm carrying is allowed or disallowed at such events, users must additionally review state concealed and open carry laws.

The database is publicly available via the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) on OpenICSPR. Access the database here.

“Entrapment in a spiral of escalating political violence is not inevitable. Those who promote violence, whether in government or not, must recognize that they do not have the public’s support. The large majority of us who reject political violence must make our rejection known, creating a climate of unacceptability for violence that will help prevent its occurrence.”

-Garen Wintemute, director of CVP, professor, and lead author