Reduced Incidence of Arrest Following an Extreme Risk Protection Order Among Respondents in California

Reduced Incidence of Arrest Following an Extreme Risk Protection Order Among Respondents in California

  • by Pear VA, Schleimer JP, Shev AB, Winterte GJ, Frattaroli S, Zeoli AM

Quick Summary

  • People in California who were issued an extreme risk protection order (ERPO) were much less likely to be arrested for violence or other crimes after the order was issued than in the 6 months prior.
  • Arrest rates were lower while the order was in effect and up to 6 months after it expired, suggesting ERPOs may help reduce criminal behavior both during and after an acute crisis.

“Extreme risk protection orders are often talked about as a way to prevent suicide, but our findings show they may do more than that. People subject to these orders in California were less likely to be arrested for violence or other crimes while the orders were in effect and even after they ended, suggesting ERPOs have a meaningful role to play in preventing interpersonal violence.”

-Veronica Pear, assistant professor and lead author

About the Research

FINDINGS IN BRIEF

• Arrests dropped sharply after ERPOs were issued, with arrest rates during the order up to about 80% lower than in the six months before.
• Reductions were seen across multiple outcomes, including arrests for violence, firearm-related offenses, and firearm violence.
• The lower risk persisted after ERPOs ended, not just while restrictions were in place.
• No respondents legally purchased firearms while an ERPO was active, and very few did so after the order expired.
• Most (71%) ERPO cases involved threats toward others, including intimate partners and, in some cases, mass shooting threats.

IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

This study shows ERPO respondents (those subject to the order) are at lower risk of arrest—including for violent and firearm-related crimes—after the order was issued compared to the months leading up to the order. The findings suggest ERPOs may not only limit access to firearms during crises but also help deescalate dangerous situations more broadly. Policymakers can use this evidence to support adopting or strengthening ERPO laws, while practitioners can view ERPOs as a way to reduce harm without criminalizing people in crisis. Overall, the results point to ERPOs as a promising, non-punitive approach to preventing interpersonal violence and other criminal behavior. 

METHODS

We studied people in California who were issued an extreme risk protection order between 2016 and 2019. Using ERPO court case records and statewide criminal history data, we compared arrest rates in the six months before an order was issued to rates while the order was in effect and in the six months after it ended. We also characterized respondents’ legal firearm purchasing behavior before and after the orders were issued, drawing on California’s comprehensive firearm transaction data.

Citation

Pear VA, Schleimer JP, Shev AB, Wintemute GJ, Frattaroli S, Zeoli AM. Reduced incidence of arrest following an extreme risk protection order among respondents in California. PNAS nexus. 2026 May 23:pgag184.

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Primary Category

Firearm Policies and Programs

Secondary Categories

Firearm Access and Risk

Tags

Research