PREPRINT: Decreased support for political violence in the United States in mid-2026
Findings from a nationally representative survey
Quick Summary
- There was a broad decrease in support for political violence in the United States from mid-2025 to mid-2026, contrary to expectation and the popular perception; support remained stronger on the political right than on the political left.
These findings are clear. Entrapment in a spiral of escalating political violence is not inevitable in the United States. Those who promote political violence should recognize that they do not have the public’s support and that promoting violence may exact a political cost.
-Garen Wintemute, director of CVP, professor, and lead author
About the Research
BRIEF FINDINGS
- Our 2025 and 2026 surveys included 53 items addressing anticipation of, justification for, and willingness to commit political violence. Of those 53 items, 51 showed decreases in 2026. While the decreases were small, 35 of them were significant.
- The only increases were for the expectation of and perceived need for civil war, and only the increase in expectation was significant.
- As in the past, three-fourths of participants believed that violence “in general…to advance a political objective that you support” was never justified.
- Decreases occurred across the political spectrum. Justification for political violence—but not personal willingness to engage in violence—was more common among MAGA Republicans than most others.
- A small but concerning group of non-Republican MAGA supporters had higher levels of support for and willingness to engage in violence than did most other groups.
IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
These findings run counter to the perception that the United States is in a new era of increasing political violence. The view across time is hopeful. From 2022 to 2026, the vast majority of survey participants have rejected political violence. Of those who considered it justifiable under specified circumstances, the vast majority were unwilling to commit political violence themselves. These hopeful findings should encourage and help focus prevention efforts in this midterm election year.
METHODS
Findings are from Wave 5 of a nationally representative annual cohort survey, conducted online May 15 to June 15, 2026. Participants were members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. There were 7,752 participants for this analysis; the completion rate was 90.7%.
Citation
Wintemute GJ, Robinson S, Neumann K, Tancredi DJ, Cruz SS, Shev A, Tomsich E, Velasquez B, Wright M, Pear V. Decreased Support for Political Violence in the United States in Mid-2026: Findings from a Nationally Representative Survey [Internet]. SocArXiv; 2026.
Learn More
- Read the working paper in SocArXiv.