PREPRINT: Public Opinion on Civil War in the USA as of Mid-2024
Findings from a Nationally Representative Survey
Quick Summary
- The expectation that there will be civil war in the next few years and the belief that it was needed were uncommon and were unchanged from 2023. Those expecting to participate in political violence reported openness to change.
Abstract
Objective
This study investigates the association between replacement thinking, status threat perceptions, and the endorsement of political violence among non-Hispanic white adults in the United States. It explores how perceived threats to social status can drive support for extreme measures aimed at preserving white hegemony, addressing a gap in research on factors contributing to political violence, a public health concern.
Methods
The 2022 Life in America Survey provided data for this cross-sectional study, focusing on status threat and replacement thinking among non-Hispanic white respondents. Status threat was inferred from relative income, education level, and racial segregation in residential census tracts, while replacement thinking was derived through agreement with the statement “in America, native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants.” The outcome was the endorsement of political violence. Analysis utilized a survey-weighted robust modified Poisson model.
Results
Among 5,976 non-Hispanic white respondents, 18.7 % supported political violence in at least one scenario. A U-shaped relationship was observed between racial segregation and political violence endorsement: respondents from more diverse communities were less likely to support political violence. Those endorsing replacement thinking were 233 %–229 % more likely to endorse political violence than those who did not, dependent on income levels. White respondents without a high school degree were 29 % more likely to endorse political violence.
Conclusion
The study found a positive association between replacement thinking, markers of status threat, and political violence endorsements among non-Hispanic white Americans. These findings emphasize the need for research and interventions to mitigate these perceptions and prevent political violence.